Contenders
1. Miami Heat
The additions of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis should open up the court for Dwyane Wade and LeBron James as they transition to small ball permanently. The question is who gets the nod at power forward, Udonis Haslem, Shane Battier or Lewis? Players like Mike Miller, James Jones or Haslem may not see the floor because the defending champs are so talented. The team is 12 deep and should be favored to repeat. Are 73 wins out of the question?
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2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Even with the Lakers signing Steve Nash and Dwight Howard, OKC is still number two until the season starts right? Nothing has been proven in LA yet! The Thunder also have the one player that can guard Howard 1-on-1 consistently, Kendrick Perkins. Perk will allow Serge Ibaka to roam and cause defensive problems for the Lakers’ slashers.
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3. Los Angeles Lakers
Mike Brown still has to prove to me he has figured out a way to get Kobe Bryant to share the ball. In order to convince Howard he should re-sign with LA, LeBron’s former coach must come up with a game plan to make sure the big man gets an average of 18-20 FGAs per game. This project must avoid turning into “Orlando Magic West” at all cost if the Lakers have any chance of inking the All-Star center to a long term deal.
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4. Los Angeles Clippers
To my surprise the Clippers weren’t able to even scratch vs. the Spurs in last season’s postseason. They self-destructed and lost their composure too often to compete with a poised Spurs unit. Enter Jamal Crawford, Willie Green, Grant Hill and Lamar Odom. 51 seasons of NBA experience! Did I mention they also get Chauncey Billups back from his Achilles injury as well?! Not a bad collection to go with Chris Paul, Caron Butler, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.
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5. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls went 18-9 when Derrick Rose was out last season with a “Bench Mob” that collectively made up for the absence of their MVP. Chicago upgraded that unit with offseason additions of Marco Belinelli, Kirk Hinrich, Nazr Mohammed, Vladimir Radmanovic and Nate Robinson. The Mob will be counted on again to get the Bulls over the hump until Rose returns. Once he does, this is a scary defensive team that will get an offensive jolt from a legit 25+ PPG player in Rose. It’s still not enough to unseat the Heat.
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6. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are ranked this high based on Gregg Popovich’s ability to always put a cohesive unit on the floor year in and year out. The team didn’t add much during the off-season. Instead, they will be relying on the development of Kawhi Leonard to help shoulder the scoring load for an aging group. Keep an eye on how much “Pop” can get out of Eddy Curry. He got into decent playing shape last season with the Heat and Curry’s big body could be an asset for the Spurs that aren’t very imposing in the frontcourt.
Sleepers
7. Memphis Grizzlies
Too high? Nope, this squad seems to be cursed by injuries, stopping them from ever gaining any type of chemistry. This is the year they finally get over the injury bug and realize how close they are to seriously contending. Keep an eye on two youngsters that may contribute early, Tony Wroten and Josh Selby. Wroten is a PG that can guard big PGs and SGs. Selby averaged 24 PPG in the Vegas Summer League on 64% shooting from behind the arc and should fill some of the bench scoring void left by OJ Mayo’s departure.
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8. Philadelphia 76ers
Make no doubt about it, the Sixers will be a power team this season with the additions of Andrew Bynum and Kwame Brown. Bynum will get every chance to prove he can be a franchise center. In order to get the contender level, Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner must prove they will make teams pay consistently. Depending on the starting rotation, keep an eye on Jason Richardson for 6th Man of the Year.
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9. Denver Nuggets
Get back on defense!! George Karl has the horses to run the race, but does he have the Xs and Os to fit his personnel when they need a basket. If you can slow down Denver, you force them to play in the half-court and out of their comfort zone. At some point, Karl has to appoint someone as the go-to guy offensively. I love their frontcourt versatility to play small ball if needed.
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10. Brooklyn Nets
Deron Williams has a supporting cast now and the frustrating losses should turn into wins with the addition of Joe Johnson to his backcourt. Spots 1-9 are solid and if Avery Johnson can muster any life out of Andray Blatch, that’s a solid 10-man rotation. Their weakness will be lack of frontcourt depth behind Brook Lopez due to his injury history. In order for this reclamation project to be a success, Lopez has to stay healthy and on the court. If not, this ranking will drop fast!
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11. Indiana Pacers
They were on their way to upsetting the eventual champs until Lance Stephenson was caught giving the choke sign to the Heat. Up until that point, the Pacers had shown that gritty attitude that Coach Frank Vogel wants from his team. After that, the Heat took their heart and any chance of me every calling them a serious contender. Danny Granger is a nice complimentary player, but as long as he continues to be the “Franchise”player, the Pacers will only go so far. I do like the pick-up of Miles Plumlee, his game should be better suited for the NBA game with his athletic ability.
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12. New York Knicks
Gotta be honest, it’s hard for me to trust any team that starts JR Smith at shooting guard. Smith is a great bad shot taker (not maker) and far too often shoots his teams out of games. I hope for the Knicks’ sake Iman Shumpert returns to full health soon. The season truly hinges Amare Stoudemire’s ability to control the glass. If Amare doesn’t average double-digit rebounds this year, I am done with him. He has to show his teammates that he’s more than a volume shooter and willing to do some dirty work. It’s the New York way!
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13. Boston Celtics
I’m convinced once Ray Allen departed for Miami this team needed to rebuild around Rajon Rondo. Instead, they decided to give it one more try with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett as the focal points of the team. Rondo is the team MVP and as long as Pierce and KG are on the roster, the point guard will never come from under their shadow as the team leader. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt ranking-wise because they still have championship pedigree remaining in that locker-room. Unfortunately, Pierce and KG are too old to be focal points of a championship-caliber team.
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14. Dallas Mavericks
Dallas fared well after striking out on Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. Dallas is ranked this low because I’m not sold Chris Kaman can stay healthy for a full season and postseason. If and when he does go down, they have little behind him at center and aren’t built for small-ball with Dirk Nowitzki or Elton Brand at center.
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15. Golden State Warriors
Golden State will be a fun team to watch. Mark Jackson doesn’t have many red flags outside of Stephen Curry’s health status. Klay Thompson put on a show during the Vegas Summer league, averaging 20 PPG on 71% shooting from downtown. The Warriors saw enough after two games and shut him down. Jackson’s roster is literally two deep at every spot with quality players and at some positions, three deep!
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16. Portland Trail Blazers
Portland drafted two impressive rookies in Damian Lillard and Meyers Leonard. Lillard starts immediately, while Leonard is more valuable off the bench at this stage in his career. Meyers is an athletic big, but with teams going to small ball the Blazers would be better off starting LaMarcus Alridge at center alongside JJ Hickson at power forward. The Blazers are short on size. Hickson and Jared Jeffries can provide solid minutes at PF, while Leonard steals minutes at center as he slowly gets adjusted to the NBA game. Lillard was by far the most impressive rookie player I saw at the Las Vegas Summer League this past July. Lillard is my Rookie of the Year pick!
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17. Minnesota Timberwolves
Some may question the signings of Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko, but I like them. Kirilenko provides Minnesota with a solid defender whose slashing abilities will be highlighted once Ricky Rubio’s passing skills return to the squad. Roy’s scoring will be a much need addition if he can stay healthy and that’s a big if. Roy decided to have the highly popular German platelet-rich plasma therapy in hopes of restoring his career. Players are very reluctant to talk about the actual procedure, but if it does miraculously revive Roy’s career I’ll be very happy. It would have been a shame for his career to have been cut short at 28 when most players are entering their prime.
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18. Utah Jazz
The best thing that could have happened to them was making the playoffs with such a young roster. The worst thing that could have happened to them was getting Marvin Williams. Williams is a player with enormous talent but no position to utilize it. This is big year for Gordon Hayward to solidify his position as a starter in this league. Utah will rapidly move up the rankings if they find consistent scoring from the shooting guard spot. Mo Williams was a great pick-up in the off-season that will bring more stability than the departed Devin Harris.
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19. Phoenix Suns
Identity, identity, identity! For years Steve Nash has been the face of the franchise, but this season we’ll see someone else be identified as the franchise player. Will it be Goran Dragic, Michael Beasley, Luis Scola, Kendall Marshall, Wesley Johnson or maybe even Markieff Morris? Will Beasley ever play to his potential and develop into an efficient Top-10 scorer? Keep any eye on Kendall Marshall. The rookie offers the best chance for the Suns to get easy baskets, and the coaches love it. It’ll be interesting to see who the half-court offense runs through. Get well soon Channing Frye!
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20. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are banking on the backcourt of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings co-existing with similar playing styles. They are both volume shooters that don’t get others involved and take too many chances on defense. The beauty of the situation is if they ever play as one, they can cause major problems for opposing teams. Milwaukee made some strange moves to get rid of solid players and there’s not much to like after Ellis and Jennings. If the two don’t form some type of chemistry, this project should be aborted fast.
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21. Atlanta Hawks
Give Danny Ferry credit, he unloaded the contracts of Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams. Now, the problem is their wing players are below average. Josh Smith will have more offensive freedom this season and with that freedom comes responsibility. Has Smith matured enough to handle those responsibilities? In order to move up, Devin Harris will have to prove he could be a floor general.
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22. Sacramento Kings
Did you know DeMarcus Cousins averaged 18 points and 11 rebounds per game last season? Impressive right? Did you also know he only shot 45% from the field last season? Unimpressive right? Cousins has the make-up of a franchise low-post player, except he has a tendency to do dumb stuff on the perimeter. If he sticks to the block, the Kings can build around him. Thomas Robinson was drafted to compliment Cousins. After seeing him this summer, he also makes bad decisions on the perimeter. Robinson looked awful this summer, but if he can learn to keep it simple the Kings frontcourt will be impressive for years to come. A lot of ifs with this squad!
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Pretenders_
23. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons should do everything in their power to build this team around Greg Monroe. Detroit drafted Andre Drummond, a legit center with a defensive skill set to make a difference. The rookie allows Detroit to slide Monroe over to his natural position of power forward, taking advantage of his perimeter passing skills. Motown has a nice nucleus with Monroe and emerging star Brandon Knight.
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24. Houston Rockets
I am very impressed with the versatility of the Rockets young bigs. Marcus Morris, Royce White and Terrence Jones all have the ability to rebound at a high level and go the full length of the court and make a smart play. If Kevin Martin continues to stink up the joint with his lack of offensive efficiency, keep an eye on Jeremy Lamb. This kid has a sense of belonging and played with high confidence in Vegas this summer. This is not a bad thing either!
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25. Washington Wizards
I’m going to keep Washington this low until Bradley Beal realizes how special he is. Beal has the ability to average in the mid-20s, but he is a reluctant shooter. When and if he realizes he needs to provide the Wizards with perimeter scoring, Washington will rise in the rankings. Nene should be the focal point of the half-court offense until that epiphany with Beal happens. John Wall would be smart get Beal involved early and often to build his confidence.
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26. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland had three- top four picks in recent drafts. Only Kyrie Irving has shown glimpses of stardom. Second year forward Tristan Thompson had a decent rookie season, but looks more like a role player. Rookie Dion Waiters will have his chance to prove the Cavs hit on another guard draft pick. Waiters is a natural screen and roll player and should provide another scoring option for the young Cavs.
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27. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors were 23rd in the NBA in field goal percentage and decided to add Kyle Lowry and Terrence Ross to help with their biggest weakness. Ross made a nice showing of himself this summer in Vegas. The Raptors possess arguably the most athletic pair of wing starters in Ross and DeMar DeRozan. Toronto may need to play uptempo to take advantage of their new backcourt pieces.
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28. Charlotte Bobcats
Michael Jordan made the right decision in the draft by selecting his version of Scottie Pippen in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. MKG’s biggest asset is he can play multiple positions naturally. Ramon Sessions and Ben Gordon are upgrades in the backcourt. You throw in Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson and you have a formidable rotation. Jeff Taylor was another solid pick by Jordan and can carve a niche in the rotation as a shooter/defender for the Bobcats. There’s not too much to like in the post other than Bismack Biyombo’s energetic play. Watch for the development of Byron Mullens. He will finally get a chance to become the stretch 5.
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29. New Orleans Hornets
Eric Gordon is the key to this reclamation project. If Gordon stays healthy, they’ll be competitive. New Orleans played inspired basketball down the stretch last season and finished 6-3 in their last 9 games. Ryan Anderson was a solid pickup, but he doesn’t allow Anthony Davis to play at his best position. Monty Williams would be wise to start Robin Lopez at center, so the first pick can dominant as a weak side defender until Davis’ offensive game catches up with his defensive talents.
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30. Orlando Magic
Rob Hennigan was put in the unenviable position of dealing with the Dwight Howard drama. Hennigan would have made out better by dealing Howard to the Nets initially. In this case, they would have received Brook Lopez in the deal. This may have helped ease the pain of losing Superman. Instead, they got Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless, and three first-round picks. Plus, they lost, starter Jason Richardson, backup point guard Chris Duhon, and Earl Clark. Time for fans to hope that lottery ball magically gives Orlando the No. 1 pick.
Follow Travis on Twitter: @lilhookermack
